Now that both candidates have selected running mates, I thought I'd join in the discussions by mapping out the current positions and plans of both candidates on addressing climate change. I'm happy to report that both campaigns have detailed plans that recognize the validity of the issue, which is huge and represents a burgeoning consensus that is finally brushing aside any lingering claims that the scientific community has some sort of agenda causing them to concoct false notions.
Per their respective campaign websites, McCain and Obama both plan to implement a "cap and trade" emissions program, where companies are alotted a number of "carbon credits" allowing for limited pollution. Those who don't use all of their credits are allowed to sell spare credits to other companies. McCain has a long term goal to reduce emissions levels to 60% below what they were in 1990 by the year 2050. Obama plans to reduce emissions "by 80%" by 2050. I haven't found further detail on what year he's using as a comparison for that reduction, but my guess is he's looking at 2005 or 2007.
Either way, some scientists are now predicting that at current trending, the Arctic Ocean may have its first completely ice free summer as early as 2013. More conservative models have moved the date from 2080 to 2030. By comparison, in 2012, McCain's reduction plan will have reached it's first benchmark: a reduction to 18% over 1990 emissions levels. Obama's plan doesn't have the tiered benchmarks on emissions that McCain does, but he is shooting for a goal of his own: 10% of all electricity coming from renewable sources, with a longer term goal of 25% by 2025. Breaking these statements down into cold hard factual numbers would be nice, but there are too many variables and the lack of in depth detail makes it impossible to calculate.
McCain's cap and trade plan allows credits to be sold directly from one company to another. Obama's requires them to be auctioned off.
Obama mentions a plan to put 1.5 million plug-in hybrids on the road that get up to 150mpg by 2015, the final goal of which is to completely detach us from needing any oil from the Middle East or Venezuela by 2018. His aim is to ensure that these are US made cars, which will create a "green collar" manufacturing work force. He also wants to build a natural gas pipeline from Alaska, develop clean coal as a primary source of energy (previously he had been promoting nuclear energy), reduce national consumption of electricity by 15% by 2020, and weatherize 1 million low income homes per year. Obama wants to offer a $7000 tax rebate for purchases of advanced technology vehicles.
McCain's comprehensive plan is known as the Lexington Plan, and one of it's ultimate goals is complete independence from foreign oil by 2025. He wants to offer a prize of $300 million to any US firm that can create a hybrid or fully electric battery technology that will "leapfrog" current technology standards. He wants to offer a $5000 tax rebate to clean car purchasers. He supports alternative energy advancement of all kinds and wants to offer companies investing in R&D a tax incentive equal to 10% of the wages of R&D personnel. McCain advocates clean coal as well as nuclear power, and specifically wants to fund development of infrastructure for both.
As for US oil companies, McCain wants to release the moratorium on continental shelf drilling completely to allow unlimited domestic production or oil and natural gas. Obama points to all the unused lease claims that already exist both on land and at sea, and wants to force them to drill there first (or lose their leases) before leasing new areas. Obama supports a windfall profits tax which he will use to offer rebates to low income families. McCain opposes this, believing such a tax only increases our dependence on foreign oil.
McCain goes into better detail on carbon credits and how unsold units will eventually be auctioned automatically. A portion of the money from these auctions will be used to fund R&D on advanced clean technology. Another portion will be used to aid low income families when needed. He will also develop a Strategic Carbon Reserve, which will allow for extra polluting whenever the economy is under "duress".
McCain and Obama both want the US to lead global ecological efforts, mainly through the UN politically and by selling clean technologies to developing countries.
McCain also mentions an "adaptation plan" that goes beyond energy-focused efforts and covers the environmental issue completely, which I assume to mean reducing our impact on nature across the board (sprawling developments, EPA protections, fishing and hunting regulation, logging, recycling, etc) using scientific analysis as a basis for activity on a local level.
I highly encourage anyone looking for clarification or more detail to visit www.johnmccain.com or http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy for more details.
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2 comments:
Cheers to you Greg...it is rare that someone takes the time and effort to research how the candidates compare on the issues of the day.
You know where I stand, so I won't pontificate. Excellent post.
Much appreciated! I left a lot out. Voting records, industry cronies, and the fact that like every campaign, they both seem to be promising more than they'll be able to deliver.
I just wanted to compare their current stances and attitudes on the subject. It'll be an interesting exercise to go back to these checklists four years from now and see how much has actually gotten off the ground.
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